“一带一路”倡议的经济绩效评估

Economic Performance Evaluation of the Belt and Road Initiative

基于经典索罗模型,对"一带一路"倡议的经济绩效进行理论分析,结果发现:国际金融危机对人均收入水平与人均收入增速均存在破坏性作用;"一带一路"倡议可以有效弥补国际金融危机对经济的破坏,显著提升人均收入水平和人均收入增速。选取各省区人均GDP水平和人均GDP增速作为评估指标,以1997—2015年为研究样本,通过反事实方式,构建无国际金融危机、无"一带一路"倡议时人均GDP水平和人均GDP增速的虚拟估计值。对比虚拟估计值与真实值,证实了国际金融危机存在破坏作用,也证实了"一带一路"倡议对国际金融危机的破坏具有弥补作用,能够显著提升人均收入水平和人均收入增速。

This paper first constructed a theoretical model based on the classical Solow model,and made the theoretical proposition that the international financial crisis has a destructive effect on per capita income level and per capita income growth,and the Belt and Road initiative can effectively compensate for the economic harm caused by the international financial crisis,significantly increasing per capita income growth rate and per capita income level. Choosing each province＇s GDP per capita and growth rate of GDP per capita as the evaluation index,and using 1997—2015 as its research sample,we build a virtual estimator for GDP per capita and growth rate of GDP per capita that happened in the economy without the international financial crisis and the Belt and Road initiative by counterfactual method. By comparing the virtual estimate and the real value,the destructive effect of the international financial crisis is proved,and also the compensation effect of the Belt and Road initiative to financial crisis is proved,i. e. the Belt and Road initiative can significantly increase the level of per capita income and per capita income growth rate.