资本账户开放的经济基础条件分析

Analysis on Economic Fundamentals of Capital Account Liberalization

一国的初始条件对资本账户开放效应有显著门槛作用,文章构建反映金融发展和制度质量综合影响的经济基础条件变量,通过跨国数据实证分析发现,经济基础条件对资本账户开放的经济增长效应不仅存在门槛效应,而且金融发展和制度质量的不匹配也不利于发挥资本账户开放的积极效应,同时门槛值在不同阶段是动态变化的,存在着逐步上升的趋势,因此对资本账户开放的门槛条件不应静态看待。我国晚一步开放会提高对国内金融发展水平和制度质量的要求,因此要对资本账户开放的时间成本进行考虑。在提高经济基础条件并推动其协调发展的基础上,应制定经济政策和建立资本流动管理框架来规避资本账户开放带来的风险,并在实践过程中与对外开放政策进行相机调整。

Capital account liberalization is generally more beneficial and less risky if countries have reached certain levels or " thresholds" of financial and institutional development. This paper constructs the variables named economic fundamentals,including financial development and institutional quality,to mean the comprehensive effects of initial conditions. We not only find the threshold effects of economic fundamentals,but also find that mismatch of financial development and institutional quality isn't conductive to the positive effect of capital account liberalization. The threshold value is gradually increasing. So,we should not look at static conditions. There exists time cost. We should open capital account in the right way soon,while increasing the economic fundamentals.