有效增值税率与中国企业贸易关系生存率

The Effective Value-added Tax Ratio and Chinese Firms' Trade Relationship Survival

文章主要考察企业有效增值税率对企业贸易关系生存率的影响。研究发现,总体上,有效增值税率提升会降低贸易关系生存率,这一影响对本土企业、中西部企业更为显著,这一结论对不同的比例风险模型或加速死亡模型均显著。进一步分析发现,有效增值税率对外部融资依赖度、资本密集度、契约密集度都高的产品影响程度更大。这表明增值税率水平可能通过融资能力、企业投资、贸易成本支付能力途径影响贸易关系生存率。

This paper focused on the effect of effective value-added tax ratio on firms' trade relationship survival. We arrived at the following conclusions: the increasing of value-added tax ratio can reduce the survival time of firms' trade relationship,and this effect is more stronger for domestic firms and firms located in west and middle region of China. Furthermore,this conclusion is robust for different model specification. Also,we found the effect is more obvious for product of more external finance dependence,more capital intensive,more contract intensive,which means the value-added tax affect trade survival through the channels of financing ability,firm investment and trade cost. The policy suggestion of this paper is that decreasing of valued-added tax ratio is beneficial for trade persistence and stability.