文化产品出口增长:来自价格还是质量?

Cultural Export Growth: from Price or Quality?

文章基于1996~2013年中国文化贸易HS六位码数据,通过构建文化产品出口二元边际和出口质量指标,对文化产品出口增长的影响因素进行了实证分析。总体来看,文化产品出口价格、出口质量与出口集约边际间存在显著的促进效应,而与出口扩展边际间存在一定的负向抑制效应,即中国文化贸易增长可能存在"低质竞价"模式。进一步,在二元边际水平较高的核心文化产品与较长的贸易持续期样本中,上述影响效应均显著存在。同时,在不同出口二元边际指标和持续期分类样本估计中,多种稳健性回归结果也均验证了上述结论。基于此,如何破解出口价格和出口质量对文化贸易高端出口能力的抑制效应,可能是未来一定时期内中国文化贸易国际竞争力与国家软实力提升的关键所在。

Using Chinese cultural trade six-digit HS data during 1996 ~ 2013,this paper constructs indicators of cultural trade' s margins and export quality,and then makes empirical analysis on determining factors of cultural export growth. Overall,cultural export price and quality have significantly positive effects on export's intensive margin,while they demonstrate a negative effect on export's extensive margin,indicating that Chinese cultural trade growth may be in a " low quality bidding" mode to a certain extent. Further analysis shows that the above effects are more significant in sub-samples with higher margins of core cultural products export with a long period of trade duration. Various robustness checks further verify the above findings. The main policy implication is that eliminating the inhibitory effect of the low quality bidding mode of cultural trade and improving high-end export capacity is the key to enhance China's international competitiveness of cultural trade and national soft power.