金融竞争力、信贷过度扩张与经济增长

Financial competitiveness,excessive credit and economic growth

传统的度量金融发展水平的指标未能区分金融发展水平的真实提高与过度金融化。因此,本文分别使用金融竞争力指标以及信贷过度扩张指标度量该差异,并且在116个经济体2006年~2015年面板数据的基础上,使用面板分位数模型实证检验金融竞争力、信贷过度扩张对经济增长的不同影响.研究发现:金融竞争力的提升能够有效的促进经济增长,且在经济增长速度较低时影响更大;信贷过度扩张会显著地降低经济增长速度,但在经济增长速度较高时具有较大影响.该结论在次贷危机后子样本、发展中经济体子样本、不同金融竞争力子指标、不同信贷过度扩张虚拟变量设定以及系统GMM估计下均保持成立.因此,改善中国当前金融竞争力不足与信贷过度扩张共存的问题,是新时期中国经济增长的重要推动因素.

Current credit indicators nancialization, hence, this article, cannot distinguish between actual financial development and excessive fi- taking their difference into consideration, applies the financial competitive- ness indicator and the excessive credit indicator to examine how these two indicators influence economic growth, based on the panel quantile regression model with a panel data of 116 countries from 2006 to 2015. It was found that high financial competitiveness can effectively promote economic growth , especially when the e- conomic growth rate is low. Meanwhile, excessive credit can reduce economic growth prominently, and the in- fluence is greater when the economic growth rate is high. This conclusion is robust in the post-crisis sub-sam- ple, in the developing countries sub-sample, and for disaggregated financial competitiveness indicators, differ- ent excessive credit dummy variables and systematic GMM estimation. Therefore, it is very important for China to alleviate the problem of both low financial competitiveness and high excessive credit, in order to promote the economic growth in the new era.