空气污染程度与经济发展水平对人口死亡率的影响研究——基于向量自回归模型的实证分析

The Influence Study on Air Pollution and Economic Development Level to Population Mortality: The Empirical Analysis Based on Vector Autoregressive Model

利用1983-2015年的时间序列数据，构建计量实证模型，采用协整分析和向量自回归等分析方法，实证研究人口死亡率、空气污染程度与经济发展水平之间的协整关系、格兰杰因果关系、脉冲效应以及方差分解，以探析空气污染程度与经济发展水平对人口死亡率的影响。研究发现：空气污染程度上升会导致人口死亡率增加，而提高经济发展水平则会降低人口死亡率，人口死亡率、空气污染程度与经济发展水平之间存在长期稳定的协整关系；人口死亡率、空气污染程度与经济发展水平之间存在单项的格兰杰因果关系，即空气污染程度与经济发展水平是人口死亡率的格兰杰成因；从脉冲效应和方差分解得出，空气污染程度的变动对人口死亡率产生较大的正作用，而经济发展水平的变动对人口死亡率产生较小的副作用。

Using 1983-2015 time series data, building econometric empirical model, using cointegration analysis and vector autoregression analysis method, the paper empirically studies the cointegration relationship, granger causality and the effects of pulse and variance decomposition about population mortality, air pollution and the economic development level, to analyzes the general levels of air pollution and economic development level on how to affect population mortality rates. Study found： Increasing the degree of air pollution would lead to increase population mortality rates, and improve the level of economic development will reduce the population mortality rates. There exists a long-term stable cointegration relationship about air pollution, population mortality between the level of economic development; Population mortality rates, air pollution and the level of economic development are the individual granger causality, the air pollution degree and the level of economic development are the granger cause of population mortality rates; From pulse effect and variance decomposition, the change of air pollution on population mortality rates have great positive effect, and the changes in the level of economic development have less negative effects on population death rates.