区域经济空间相关性的趋势分析及影响因素

Trend Decomposition and Factors Analysis of Spatial Correlation in Regional Economy

以1978—2013年我国31个省(区、市)为研究样本,借助空间全局Moran’sⅠ、局部LISA和B-N分解模型分析了我国区域经济空间相关性的特征演变、根源和影响因素。研究发现,我国区域经济发展具有显著的空间正相关性,其主要来源于确定性趋势;整体上,加强区域之间的资金、技术和信息的流动,增加财政支出,同时合理引导人口流向、努力缩小各地区对外开放落差与贫富差距,均能有效促进各区域经济协调发展。基于此,合理运用区域经济的空间相关性特征,尤其是响应"一带一路"倡议,有针对性地进行政策布局,能事半功倍地促进整个国民经济的协调发展。

Taking 31 provinces, munincipalites and autonomous regions in China from 1978 to 2013 as the subject, this article meas- ures the evolution, root and influencing factors of spatial correlation of China＇ s regional economy by adopting Moran＇s I index, LISA and B-N model. Results show that there is a significant positive correlation between regional economic growth and space clustering, which is mostly rooted in deterministic trend. Overall, to promote a balanced economic development among regions, it is effective to strengthen the regional flow of capital, technology and information, to increase fiscal expenditure, to provide proper guidance in population flow and to narrow the gap between the rich and the poor as well as the difference in regional openness. In view of this, a rational utilization of spacial correlation of regional economy and a pertinent policy structure combined with the ＂One Belt and One Road＂ initiative can dramatically promote the balanced development of overall national economy.