工业集聚、空间溢出效应与地区增长差异——基于空间杜宾模型的实证分析

Industrial Agglomeration,Spatial Spillover Effects and Regional Difference in Economic Growth——An Empirical Analysis Based on Spatial Durbin Model

工业集聚对经济增长的溢出效应具有空间差异性。基于ESDA分析方法,建立经济距离空间权重矩阵,考察我国省际工业集聚和经济增长的空间相关性,并以此为基础建立空间面板杜宾模型分析工业集聚对经济增长的影响,运用偏微分法对空间效应进行分解。结果表明:我国工业集聚与经济增长之间存在明显的空间自相关性和空间依赖性,呈现出高高集聚和低低集聚的态势,而且随着时间的推移这种集聚态势更加明显;工业集聚对本地区经济增长具有促进作用,而对其他地区会产生负的空间溢出性,从而加剧区域间的不平衡。

Industrial agglomeration has spatial difference on spillover effects of economic growth. By means of ESDA analysis, this pa- per establishes the spatial weight matrix of economic distance and examines the spatial correlation of inter-provincial industrial agglom- eration and economic growth in China. Based on this, a spatial panel of Durbin model is constructed in order to analyze the influence of industrial agglomeration on economic growth and to decompose the spatial effect based on partial differential method. Results show that there is obvious spatial autocorrelation and spatial dependence between industrial agglomeration and economic growth in China, showing a tendency of high-high agglomeration and low-low agglomeration, which grows more distinct over time. The industrial agglomeration has a positive effect on the local economic growth, and will generate negative spatial spillovers in other areas, which will aggravate re- gional imbalance.