基于物元可拓模型的流域治理综合效益评价

Matter-element extension model-based evaluation on comprehensive benefit from watershed governance

为了评价流域治理的综合效益,基于物元可拓理论,从社会效益、经济效益、生态环境效益三个方面建立评价指标体系,提出了四级评级标准,采用熵值法确定权重,运用物元可拓模型计算各评价指标相应于各评价等级的关联度,构建流域治理综合效益评价模型。同时,运用构建的流域治理综合效益评价模型,结合淅川县鹳河流域治理项目的数据,对其流域治理的综合效益进行评价,并通过局部灵敏度分析方法对评价结果进行验证。结果表明:该流域2010年的流域治理综合效益等级为"中",2013年流域治理效果有所提升,流域治理综合效益等级为"良",两项结果与实际情况相符合;当各评价指标值上下浮动10%时,其最大综合关联度也随之发生变化,但是评价等级未变,表明物元可拓模型评价结果稳定可靠。研究成果对流域治理综合效益评价具有较好的实用性。

In order to evaluate the comprehensive benefit from watershed governance, a four-grade evaluation criteria is proposed by establishing the evaluation index system from the threes aspects, i.e. the social benefit, economic benefit and eco-environment benefit, in accordance with the matter-element extension theory, and then the evaluation model for the comprehensive bene- fit from watershed governance is established through determining the index weights with the entropy method and calculating the correlative degrees of all the evaluation indexes corresponding to all the evaluation grades with the matter-element extension mod- el. Meanwhile, the established evaluation model for the comprehensive benefit from watershed governance is adopted for evalua- ting the comprehensive benefit from the governance of Guanhe River Watershed in Xichuan County in accordance with the data from its governance project, while the evaluation result is verified with the local sensitivity analysis method concerned. The result shows that the grade of the comprehensive benefit from the watershed governance in 2010 is ＂medium＂, which is enhanced to some extent with the evaluation grade of ＂relatively better ＂ in 2013, while both the results are coincided with the actual situations. When all the indexes fluctuate by 10%, the maximum comprehensive correlative degrees are accordingly changed as well,thus it is indicated that the evaluation result from the matter-element extension model is stable and reliable. The study result has a better practicability for the evaluation of the comprehensive benefit from watershed governance.