气候变化对中国海洋经济可持续发展的影响

Impacts analysis of climate change on China's marine economy

为评估气候变化及实施减排政策对中国海洋经济的影响,本文构建了中国海洋经济社会经济核算矩阵(marine social accounting matrix,MSAM),并以此为数据基础构建中国海洋经济可计算一般均衡(computable general equilibrium,CGE)模型,并将该模型与气候变化影响模型相结合,从而实现了从气候变化对自然系统的影响到对经济系统影响的转化。论文设计了实施和不实施温室气体减排两种政策时的可能的6种气候变化情景。各情景的模拟分析表明:海平面上升同时考虑天文潮最高潮位、同时考虑最大台风暴潮和最大天文潮耦合影响两种子情景下,中国实施减排政策对沿海GDP的影响要分别比不实施减排政策低0.19%和0.12%;海平面上升叠加天文潮、风暴潮3种子情景下,实施减排政策对海洋经济的影响要分别比不实施减排政策低1.67%、0.72%、0.37%。

In order to evaluate the impacts of climate change and emission mitigation policies on China＇s marine economy,this paper developed a marine social accounting matrix（MSAM）,and marine economy CGE model（MECGE）,to reflect the impacts of climate change disasters and climate change policies. Additionally,the MECGE model was combined with climate change model to achieve the conversion from the influence of climate change on natural system to the influence on socioeconomic system. Based on the authoritative research results of climate change,6 climate change scenarios were designed. The model output showed that the implementing emission mitigation policies scenario would increase China＇s coastal GDP by 0. 19% and 0. 12% comparing to the non-use emission mitigation policies under THmax and CHmax sub-scenarios,respectively. While for marine economy,the implementing emission mitigation policies could increase it by 1. 67%,0. 72% and 0. 37% comparing to non-use emission mitigation policies under THmax,Hmax,CHmax sub-scenarios,respectively. Therefore,the implementation of emission mitigation policies could play a significant role in promoting marine economic growth.