基于确定性等价收益的风险决策方法研究及案例分析

Risk Decision-making Methods Based on Deterministic Equivalent Return with a Case Study

在决策过程中,对备选方案的评价要综合收益与风险两个因素,否则会导致决策结果偏离实际。对此,基于期望效用与风险成本,采用确定性等价收益函数为评价模型,对决策问题进行研究;并从风险规避度函数出发,推导出对应的效用函数,求解得到各个方案的确定性等价收益值,据此进行方案的排序与筛选。以山东半岛蓝色经济区2016年统计数据为例,采用该模型进行的分析结果表明,基于推导出的效用函数而得到的确定性等价收益模型,可以表达决策过程的风险程度与决策者的风险态度,并根据评价结果提出了相应的建议。

In the process of decision-making, the evaluation of the alternatives contain two factors:comprehensive income and risk,otherwise it will lead to deviate from the actual decision-making results. In this paper,based on the expected utility and risk cost,the deterministic equivalent income function is used as the evaluation model to study the decision problem. The value of the proceeds,according to the sort and screening.Taking the data of Shandong Peninsula Blue Economic Zone in 2016 as an example,the results of of the analysis using this model show that the deterministic equivalent income model based on the deduced utility function can express the relationship between the risk degree of decision-making process and the decision-risk attitude,and put forward corresponding suggestions according to the evaluation results.