交通基础设施对经济增长的溢出效应分析——基于我国省际动态面板数据分析

Analysis on Spillover Effect of Transportation Infrastructure on Economic Growth Based on Provincial Dynamic Panel Data in China

使用索洛余值法,对我国30个省、市、自治区的全要素生产率进行了测算分析,在此基础上,选用我国1996~2015年的省际动态面板数据,运用系统GMM方法和一阶差分GMM方法,实证研究了交通基础设施对经济增长的溢出效应。研究表明,交通基础设施对经济增长并没有产生正向影响,这可能与交通基础设施的过度饱和有关,因此,提高交通基础设施的投资质量和优化结构成为今后交通基础设施投资的关键所在。

Since the reform and opening up,China 's economy has maintained rapid development,Advanced development of transport infrastructure is one of the prominent features,which is also considered to be an important factor of the "China's speed". China's long-term economic growth is inseparable from the technological progress and efficiency of the upgrade,but also accompanied with enhancing total factor productivity( TFP). Becaccse China's current economic restructuring is in the transition period,the economic growth rate has slowed down. Under the background,it is of great practical significance to study the spillover effect of transportation infrastructure on economic growth. In this paper,we use the Solow residual value method to analyze the total factor productivity of 30 provinces and autonomous regions in China. Then on this basis,we use the inter-provincial dynamic panel data from 1996 to 2015 to establish the model to study spillover effects of transportation infrastructure on economic growth. The results obtained by using the GMM method and the first-order difference GMM method show that the transportation infrastructure has a negative effect on the growth of economy,but the effect is weak; and other variables that affect TFP-trade openness and government expenditure has a significant role in promoting the growth of TFP.