山东产业结构调整对职工养老保险发展的影响

Analysis on the Influence of Industrial Structure Adjustment and the Basic Endowment Insurance Development in Shandong

由于不同产业劳动密集程度、就业稳定性、工资水平等都存在差异,产业结构及其变动对职工养老保险必然会产生影响。本文在对这种影响进行一般性分析的基础上,利用2011~2016年山东省分行业职工养老保险数据,从参保缴费人数、缴费能力及基金收支三个方面,分析了产业结构调整对职工养老保险的影响,发现不同行业的影响具有明显差异。合理的产业结构是职工养老保险保障能力和可持续的必要条件。从经济社会协调发展的角度看,不能单纯追求产业结构升级,特别是不能过度追求提高第三产业比重。

Industrial structure and its changes have impact on the old-age insurance,due to the labor intensity,employment stability and salary level differences between industries. Using the data of the basic endowment insurance for the urban working group in Shandong province from 2011 to 2016,this paper analyzes the influence of industrial structure adjustment on workers' pension insurance from three aspects:the number of the contributors,the ability to afford the fee and balance of the fund. The results show that the difference of industrial structure and its change have significant influence on the development of endowment insurance. Reasonable industrial structure is the necessary condition for the guarantee ability and sustainable of endowment insurance. From the point of view of economic and social coordinated development,we should not overly pursue the upgrading of industrial structure,especially the proportion of tertiary industry.