洪水灾害危险性评价方法的研究与改进

Research and improvement on assessment method of flood hazard

洪水风险分析是防洪非工程措施的重要组成部分,而洪水危险性评价是风险分析的基础。现有的洪水危险性评价方法由于需要获得淹没水深,在对洪水风险预测时要求复杂的水力学模型和高分辨率数据的支撑,但业务化过程中常常无法满足数据要求,为了简化洪水危险性评价的过程,确保评价结果的准确性,提出了一个新的简单且综合的洪水危险性评价指标(FHI,Flood Hazard Index)。该指标以GisNet和ArcGIS为软件平台,结合分布式水文模型,依据洪灾的形成机理,综合考虑分布式流量与地形指数。结合北京山区红螺谷流域的具体情况,对新指标进行了对比检验。结果显示,FHI能够真实地反映区域洪灾随空间变化的趋势,为未来洪水危险性评价与预测的研究,提供了一个全新的思路,对洪水风险研究体系的完善具有重要的现实意义。

Flood risk analysis is an important part of non-engineering flood control measures,and flood hazard assessment is the basis of risk analysis.Due to the need to obtain submerged water depth,the existing assessment methods of flood hazard requires complex hydraulic models and high-resolution data,but during operation,it is often impossible to meet the data requirements.In order to simplify the process of flood hazard assessment and ensure the accuracy of the results,this paper presents a new simple and integrated flood hazard index.The index is based on Gisnet and ArcGIS and combines with the distributed hydrological model.In light of the formation mechanism of flood hazard,the index comprehensively considers the natural attribute of distributed streamflow and topographic index.Based on the specific situation of the Hongluogu in Beijing mountain area,we tested the new index.The results showed that FHI can truly reflect the trend of regional flood with spatial change.It can provide a new idea for the future flood hazard assessment,and has great significance to the improvement of flood risk study system.