基于比例性偏离份额的海洋产业结构演进的省际比较

Inter-provincial Comparison of the Evolution of Marine Industrial Structure Based on the Proportionality Shift-Share Model

基于省际视角,采用比例性偏离份额模型对我国11个沿海省市2005-2014年的海洋产业结构及其演进趋势进行了探讨。结果表明:1)静态比例性偏离份额显示,南部沿海省区海洋产业结构优势高于东部和北部沿海省区,尤其是海洋二、三产结构优势对海洋经济增长贡献较大,而北部沿海省区竞争优势高于东部和南部沿海省区,尤其是海洋二、三产增速较快。2)根据结构和竞争偏离分量对海洋经济增长的贡献,将各省区分为竞争强结构优化型、竞争强结构退化型、竞争弱结构退化型、竞争弱结构优化型4类。3)动态比例性偏离份额显示:北部沿海省区海洋经济增速在上升,竞争优势突出;南部沿海部分省区竞争优势有所加强,但结构优势有所减弱,对海洋经济增长贡献减弱;东部沿海省区海洋产业结构稍有好转,但竞争优势弱化,对海洋经济增长的贡献有限。

From the inter-provincial perspective,the structure and evolution trend of marine industry in coastal provinces in China from 2005 to 2014 were discussed based on the proportionality shift-share model.Results are as following:1)the static proportional shift-share analysis shows that structural shift advantage of the marine industry in southern coastal provinces is more obvious than that in the eastern and northern coastal provinces,especially the marine secondary and tertiary industry structural advantage contribute a lot to the marine economic growth;while the northern coastal provinces have higher competitive advantages than the eastern and southern coastal provinces,which should be contributed to the fast growth rate of the marine secondary and tertiary marine industry.2)According to the contribution from structural and competitive shift component to the growth of marine economy,the provinces are divided into 4 kinds of types:competitive strong structure optimization,competitive strong structure degradation,competitive weak structure degradation,competitive weak structure optimization.3)Dynamic proportional shift-share analysis shows that,in the northern coastal provinces,the growth rate of marine economic is rising and competitive advantage is obvious;in the southern coastal provinces,the competitive advantage is strengthened,but the structural advantage and its contribution to marine economic growth is weakened;while the structural advantage in the eastern coastal provinces is improving,but its situation is not obvious.Coupled with the weakened competitive advantage in the eastern coastal provinces,its contribution to marine economic growth is limited.