中国的节能政策有效吗?——基于SFA-Bayes分析框架的生态全要素能源效率测定

Are the Energy Conserving Policies Effective?——Estimating Ecological Total Factor Energy Efficiency Based on SFA-Bayes Framework

鉴于单位GDP能耗指标的片面性和基于DEA-SBM分析框架测算的生态全要素能源效率的纵向不可比性,本文提出了测算结果具有纵向可比性并且将非期望产出考虑在内的SFA-Bayes分析框架。基于2000—2013年中国省级面板数据的实证结果发现:中国生态全要素能源效率(ETFEE)较低,样本期间均值在0.60左右,东部地区高于中部和西部地区。从纵向发展来看,样本期间中部和西部的技术创新速度快于东部;从整体来看,ETFEE虽然有所提高,但是非常缓慢,样本期间只提高了0.02左右,这说明中国的节能政策效果并不明显。从影响ETFEE的因素来看,区位因素的影响程度要高于产业结构因素,其他条件相同时,东部地区的ETFEE最高,第三产业的ETFEE高于其他产业。

The paper proposes a SFA-Bayes based framework with time series data and takes undesirable outputs into consideration,being an improved one when compared with the energy-to-GDP ratio and the DEA-SBM model. The empirical results obtained with panel data covering 29 Chinese provincial administrative regions during2000—2013 show that the ecological total factor energy efficiency levels are relatively low,with an average value of0. 60,higher in the eastern area than in western and central areas. An improvement by 2 percent in efficiency score for the whole country and a higher improvement in western and central areas relative to the eastern area in technology progress are confirmed during the sample period,demonstrating that the energial conserving policy may be not as effective as seen in terms of the energy-to-GDP ratio. Further,it seems that location factors,when compared with industrial structure,have more impacts on ecological total factor energy efficiency,and when other things are equal,ecological total factor energy efficiency levels in the eastern area and in the third industry are relatively high.