基于Influ-Logit模型的综合运输方式货运量分担率研究——以四川省为例

Freight Share in Comprehensive Transportation Based on Influ-Logit Model: Taking Sichuan Province as an Example

各交通运输方式的货运量分担率可用于判断地区运输结构与运输资源配置的合理性。首先,建立运输方式选择中考虑的影响因素指标,并运用层次分析法求出各指标的权重。其次,基于经济学中效用值与效用函数理论,确定影响因素指标的相对效用值,进而根据指标权重和相对效用值确定不同运输方式的效用函数值。再次,采用Influ-Logit模型对地区理想状态下的货运量分担率进行预测,同时根据实际数据确定实际货运量分担率,进而求出货运需求满足率。最后,结合《四川统计年鉴—2015》中交通运输行业相关数据,运用上述方法计算该省铁路、公路、水路、民航运输的货运量分担率,结果依次为21.75%,33.56%,23.39%,23.81%,对应的货运需求满足率分别为20.87%,268.56%,22.66%,0.13%,可知四川省运输结构与运输资源分配不合理,仍有较大的改善与优化空间。

Freight share of each transportation mode can be used to analyze whether the regional trans-portation structure and the transportation resources allocation are reasonable. Firstly, by establishing theindexes of influencing factors being considered in choosing modes of transportation, the index weight ofeach factor was calculated using AHP(Analytic Hierarchy Process). Secondly, based on the theory ofutility value and utility function in economics, the relative utility values of influential factors were deter-mined, and then the utility function values of different transportation modes were determined accordingto the index weights and relative utility values. Thirdly, the ideal freight share in the region was predicted using Influ-Logit model. At the same time, the actual freight share was calculated according to actualdata, and then the freight demand satisfaction rate was obtained. Finally, taking Sichuan province as anexample, based on the data from Statistical Yearbook of Sichuan Province-2015,the freight shares ofrailway, highway, waterway and civil aviation transportation were calculated to be 21.75%, 33.56%,23.39% and 23.81% respectively, the freight demand satisfaction rates are 20.87%, 268.56%, 22.66%and 0.13%. The result shows that the transportation structure and distribution of transportation resourcesare unreasonable and should be improved and optimized in Sichuan province.