互联网普及对服务贸易的影响——来自全球152个国家的经验证据

The Effects of Internet Penetration on Service Trade—Empirical Analysis of 152 Countries

利用全球152个国家2005—2015年的面板数据,实证分析互联网普及对服务贸易发展的影响。从152个国家的全样本回归结果来看,互联网普及率的提高显著促进服务贸易出口和进口;从25个发达国家和127个发展中国家的两组分样本回归结果来看,同样可以发现互联网普及分别对发达国家和发展中国家的服务贸易出口和进口具有显著的促进作用。具体来看,发达国家的互联网普及对服务贸易出口的促进作用要强于发展中国家,而发展中国家互联网普及对服务贸易进口的促进作用则要强于发达国家。

Using the panel data of 152 countries from 2005 to 2015,this paper analyzes the influence of the internet popularity on the development of service trade. According to the regression results of the total sample of 152 countries,it is found that the increase of internet popularity significantly promotes the export and import of service trade. Moreover,the popularizing rate of the internet has a positive effect on the export and import of service trade from the two sub-samples regression analysis of 25 developed countries and 127 developing countries. Specifically,the role of popularizing rate on service export in developed countries is more important than that in developing countries,while the promotion effect of popularizing rate on service import in developing countries is stronger than that in developed countries.