京沪高铁站点客流时空分布特征分析

Analysis on Space-time Distribution Characteristics of Passenger Flow along Beijing-Shanghai High-speed Railway Stations

基于高铁余票信息建立的上下净客流量模型,以京沪高铁为例,从京沪高铁客流时空分布格局、站点客流日变化规律以及典型站点客流特征3个方面进行了分析,研究表明:1)传统城市断裂点理论适用于分析两个能级相差不大的城市,对于两个能级相差较大的城市则有局限性,主要原因是高能级城市的辐射力可能会覆盖低能级城市。同时发现,京沪高铁客流时空特征是传统城市腹地划分的新佐证。2)京沪高铁出现了较为明显的"隔日效应",这有利于增加商务、旅游等事件发生的概率,且在沪宁段出现了较为明显的"城际效应"。另外,京沪高铁还强化了区域内1 h时空距离的节点城市间的联系。3)京沪高铁促使城际间通勤现象的出现,有利于区域城市之间的分工。徐州客流主要流向长三角地区,苏州北站则是京沪高铁在沪宁段所出现的"城际效应"的典型代表。

In this paper,the upper and lower net passenger traffic volume analysis model was established by the remaining tickets information of high speed railway( HSR),and the characteristics of passenger flow along Beijing-Shanghai HSR line was analysed. The following conclusions can be drawn. 1) The traditional urban breaking point theory can be applied to the analysis of the two cities with a small urban function level difference. However,this theory holds the limitation for the two cities with a great urban function level difference. The reason is that the radiation force of the high urban function level city may cover that of the low urban function level city. At the same time,it is found that the space-time characteristics of the passenger flow of the Beijing-Shanghai HSR is a new evidence of the traditional urban hinterland division. 2) An obvious "next day effect"appears in the Beijing-Shanghai HSR,which is beneficial to increase the probability of business,tourism and other events. Especially,an obvious"intercity effect"appears in the section of Shanghai-Nanjing. In addition,the Beijing-Shanghai HSR also strengthens the relations among these regions of 1 hour of space and time distance between the cities. 3) The Beijing-Shanghai HSR can promote intercity commuter phenomenon. It is beneficial to the division of labor between cities. The passenger in Xuzhou station is mainly flow to the Yangtze River Delta region. The Suzhou north station is a typical representative for "intercity effect"in Shanghai-Nanjing section of the Beijing-Shanghai HSR.