基于模糊化SEC综合指标体系的电网规划经济性评估方法

Economic Evaluation Methods of Power Grid Planning Based on the SEC Comprehensive Index System

随着电力市场的兴起和发展,电网规划不再仅仅以节省投资为目的,提高系统的可靠性、降低系统的风险水平和追求全社会效益的最大化等要素也都成为了目前电网规划部门的实际需要。在LCC分析的基础上,综合考虑安全、效能、成本之间的关系,建立了电网规划方案的安全、效能、成本评估模型,针对EENS具有不确定性的问题,基于MonteCarlo模拟法对其进行估算,同时,建立了经济性评估模型,并给出了评估指标,并基于层次分析法构造了综合评价指标来判断方案的优劣。最后,通过两个工程实例验证了文中所提评估模型的有效性。

With the rise and development of power markets, the power grid planning is no longer just for the purpose of saving investment, improving the system reliability, reducing the risk level and maximizing the benefit of the whole society have also become the actual needs of the power grid planning department at present. Based on the analysis of LCC, comprehensively considering the relationships between safety, efficiency and cost, the paper has established a power grid planning scheme evaluation model. For the uncertainty of EENS, it is estimated based on Monte-Carlo simulation. At the same time, the economic evaluation model is established, and the evaluation index is given, and the pros and cons are judged based on the evaluation index formed in the hierarchv analysis process. Finally, the effectiveness of the evaluation model is vm-ified by two engineering examples in the paper.