贝叶斯理论评估预警雷达最大探测距离的几个关键问题解决方案

Solutions to Several Sixty-Four-Dollar Problems to evaluate Maximum Detection Range of Early-Warning Radar Using Bayes Theory

目前虽然Bayes（贝叶斯）理论在预警雷达最大探测距离评估中得到应用，但是有几个关键问题仍需要展开讨论，给出更科学合理的解决方案。本文证明了二项分布b（n，P）的参数P服从正态分布，不服从均匀分布；给出了先验分布的参数计算，后验分布的样本容量计算等，并举例说明。后验分布的样本容量决定了需要载机多少个飞行架次，来确保一定置信度下的发现概率置信区间长度。

Although Bayes theory is applied in the evaluation oi maximum oetectlon range oI earJy-wammg ra- dar, it is need to discuss several sixty-four-dollar problems and to present more scientific and reasonable solu- tions. The paper has proved that the parameter p in binomial distribution b （n, p） obeys normal distribution and does not obey homogeneous distribution, has presented the parameter calculations of prior distribution, sample capacity of posterior distribution and gives an example. Sample capacity of posterior distribution determines the flight numbers to insure the confidence interval length of detection probability under a certain confidence proba- bility.