建筑施工安全绩效与安全投入关系的ABM模拟

Studying relationship between safety inputs and safety performance of construction by agent-based model

为探索安全投入方案优化方法,在Netlogo软件环境下,构建代理模型(ABM),基于津浙2省市建筑工程项目实地调研数据,采用蒙特卡罗方法对ABM模型进行重复仿真模拟,完成安全投入指标敏感性排序,探讨安全投入与安全绩效变化趋势。研究表明:安全投入增加能有效提升大多数安全绩效,但边际递减效应明显,其中,安全预防费用对安全绩效的影响能力最强,且与安全工程费用和安全员薪酬间存在明显的协同效应;安全工程费用的作用,受限于事故死亡人数这一安全绩效指标,存在佩尔兹曼效应;就总投入而言,存在经济最优值。

Based on the statistics from the field study of construction programs in Tianjin city and Zhejiang Province,the ABM was used to explore the approach to optimization of safety input scheme.In the Netlogo software environment,it ran with the Monte Carlo method for the sensibility ranking and finding the variation tendency of safety performance.The results show that when safety inputs and especially inputs of safety precaution increase,the majority of safety performance has a significant rise with a distinct marginal diminishing effect,that inputs of safety precaution obviously have synergy effects with safety equipment inputs and safety supervisors＇ salaries,that accident fatalities impose upper limits on the effect of safety equipment inputs,which indicates the existence of Pelzman effect,and that in most cases,there is an optimal value in total expense can reach an optimal value as the safety inputs increase.