风险、收益与巨灾保险组合的供给能力分析

The Analysis on Risks,Income and the Supply Capacity of Catastrophe Insurance Combination

由于巨灾不具备保险的"大数定理",因此其供给只能类似于再保险合同安排,在保险公司之间实行风险分担。但对于集中的巨灾保险市场,保险公司会选择不同的供给策略。本文通过对巨灾风险的特性分析,建立巨灾保险组合供给的均值-方差模型,从风险收益最大化角度考察巨灾保险市场的供给策略,并结合我国地震、洪水等损失数据对供给总量进行估计。

As the catastrophe does not accord with insurance ＂Law of Large Numbers＂, its supply can only be similar to the rein- surance contract arrangement which is in the practice of risk sharing between insurance companies. But for the concentrated catastro- phe insurance market, the insurance company will choose different supply strategies. By analyzing the characteristics of catastrophe risk, the paper establishes a mean-variance model of combined catastrophe insurance supply. From the perspective of risk income maximization, the paper reviews the supply strategy of the catastrophe insurance market, and estimates the total supply combined with the data of the loss led by earthquakes, floods and other catastrophe.