北京市2010-2014年麻疹发病与气象因素相关性分析

Correlations Between Meteorological Factors and Measles in Beijing from 2010 to 2014

目的对北京市麻疹发病情况与气象因素的相关性进行分析,为开展麻疹流行的趋势性预测及针对性防控提供指导。方法以北京市2010-2014年各月麻疹发病数据和气象数据为研究对象,进行Spearman相关和逐步回归分析。结果麻疹月发病数与当月平均气压呈负相关,与当月气温、降水量、相对湿度、日照时间均无相关性;与之前一个月的各气象因素无相关性;与之前第二个月的平均气温、平均最高气温、平均最低气温、平均相对湿度、降水量呈负相关,与之前第二个月的平均气压呈正相关。麻疹月发病数的气象因素逐步回归模型显示进入回归方程的气象因素为之前第二个月的平均最低气温和当月的平均气压,回归方程的决定系数为0.19。结论北京市麻疹发病与气象因素具有一定的相关性,但气象因素对发病率变化的影响作用有限。

Objective To analyze the correlations between the prevalence of measles and meteorological factors in Beijing in order to provide reference for effective prevention and control of measles epidemics.Methods The Spearman correlation analysis and stepwise multiple regression were used to analyze the data about measles incidence and meteorology in Beijing between 2010 and 2014.Results The monthly incidence of measles had negative correlations with the mean air pressure of the month,but no correlations with other meteorological factors of the month or with the meteorological factors of the previous month.It was negatively correlated with the mean temperature,mean high temperature,mean low temperature,mean relative humidity and precipitation of the month before last,but was positively correlated with the mean air pressure of the month before last.A stepwise regression equation was established and its correlation coefficient was 0.19.The monthly incidence of measles was related to the mean low temperature of the month before last and to the mean air pressure of the month.Conclusion The measles incidence and meteorological factors in Beijing have some correlations.However,meteorological factors have limited impact on the monthly incidence of measles.