中国高技术产业转移趋势时空分析——基于1995-2015年中国高技术产业相关数据

Temporal Analysis of China's High-tech Industrial Relocation:Related Data from China's High-tech industry 1995-2015

基于脱钩理论研究方法,借鉴其他学者构建的产业动态脱钩指数和区域产业集聚与扩散判定条件,对1995-2015年中国高技术产业在东部、中部、西部和东北四大区域的转移趋势进行实证研究。结果表明,1995-2015年中国高技术产业在四大区域间存在明显的产业集聚和产业扩散现象。其中,1995-2004年向东部地区集聚趋势明显;2005-2015年则由东部地区向外扩散,不断向中部和西部地区集聚趋势明显。可见,2004年是中国高技术产业集聚与扩散的分水岭。自2013年始,我国东北地区高技术产业进入衰退期,部分行业出现向外绝对扩散趋势。

According to the research method of decoupling theory,based on the industrial dynamic decoupling index and regional industrial agglomeration and diffusion criteria constructed by other scholars,an empirical study on the relocation trend of China's high-tech industry in the eastern,central,western and northeastern regions was carried out between 1995 and 2015.Simulation results shows that,with the development of high-tech industries,there are obvious industrial agglomeration and industrial diffusion phenomenon in the four regions from 1995 to 2015.In 1995-2004 the high-tech industries gathered to the eastern region obviously,in the period 2005-2015 they spread out from the eastern region to the central,the western and the northeastern regions.The year of 2004 becomes the watershed of the high-tech industrial agglomeration and diffusion.Of particular concern is the high-tech industry of northeastern region has entered a period of recession and some industries have emerged the trend of absolute proliferation from 2013.