金融危机以来美联储非常规货币政策效果分析

Analysis of the effect of unconventional monetary policy in America since the financial crisis

2008年开始,美国金融危机发生后蔓延至亚非和其他各个地区,并逐渐演变成全球性的金融危机。在运用常规货币政策的同时,各国央行积极采取非常规货币政策来缓解危机给经济带来的冲击。在对比分析以美国为代表的非常规货币政策具体实践情况的基础上,通过构建VAR模型,运用脉冲响应、方差分解研究美国非常规货币政策效果。研究结果表明:广义货币供应量、联邦基金利率、公众预期对美国宏观经济影响的效果存在差异,但非常规货币政策带来了一定的影响;非常规货币政策存在时滞问题。因此,对我国货币政策实施提出相关对策建议:使用创新型货币政策、积极引导公众预期以提高货币政策效果,但是货币政策溢出效应不能忽视。

Beginning in 2008,the US financial crisis spread to Asia and other regions and gradually became a global financial crisis. While using conventional monetary policy,central Banks have actively adopted unconventional monetary policies to mitigate the impact of the crisis on the economy. Based on the comparative analysis of the specific practice of unconventional monetary policy represented by the United States,this paper studies the effect of US unconventional monetary policy by constructing the VAR model and using impulse response and variance decomposition. The results show that there exist differences among the effects of broad money supply,federal funds rate and public expectation on the macroeconomic impact of the United States,but the unconventional monetary policy has a certain impact. And there is a time lag in the unconventional monetary policy. Therefore,the relevant countermeasures and suggestions for the implementation of monetary policy in China are put forward:using the innovative monetary policies,and actively guiding the public expectation to improve the effect of monetary policies. And at the same time,the spillover effects of monetary policy cannot be ignored.