城乡居民基础养老金调整与财政负担测算研究:2016-2050

Study on Adjustment of Basic Pension for Urban and Rural Residents and Estimation of Financial Burden:2016-2050

城乡居民基础养老金的调整关系城乡老年人的切身利益。在分析基础养老金调整的影响因素基础上,设计了基础养老金调整幅度的7种方案,并检测了财政能力,发现方案1到方案5的财政负担比例分别在0.41%-1.33%、0.5%-1.35%、0.3%-1.36%、0.7-1.38%、0.83%-1.4%之间,方案6和方案7呈现出先上升后下降的趋势,比例分别在1.14%-1.57%、1.47%-1.89%之间。采用"基础养老金占居民收入与消费差额的比重"指标判断中央财政补助适宜程度,发现方案5"物价上涨率+经济增长率×50%+工资增长率×50%"比较合适。下一步应该:优化财政支出结构,扩大社会保障支出;坚持中央财政的引导作用,鼓励地方政府以及居民对养老保险的投入。

The adjustment of basic pension for urban and rural residents is related to the vital interests of the senior citizens. Based on the analysis of influencing factors of adjustment, seven schemes about the adjustment rage have been designed. After testing fiscal capacity, we found that the proportion of financial burden of scheme 1 to5 is between 0.41%-1.33%, 0.5%-1.35%, 0.3%-1.36%, 0.7-1.38%, 0. 83%-1.4% respectively and schemes 6 and 7, which show the trend of increasing first and then decreasing, are between 1.14%-1.570%. 1.470%-1.89% separately. The indicator of ＂the basic pension in the proportion of residents＇ balance of income and assumption＂ has been adopted to estimate the appropriateness of central government subsidy and found that scheme 5, which is ＂price increase rate ＋ economic growth rate ×50% ＋ wage growth rate X 50%＂, would be more appropriate. The next step could be. optimize the structure of fiscal expenditure, expand social security expenditure, adhere to the guiding role of central government and encourage local governments and residents to invest in pension insurance.