城市人口“隐性收缩”与经济增长的交互影响研究——以广东省茂名市为例

Research on the Inter-influences between Hidden Shrinkage of Urban Population and Economic Growth——A Case Study of Maoming in Guangdong Province

在城镇化快速推进的背景下,大规模的人口流动塑造了一些城市的人口集聚效应,同时也引发了一些城市的人口流失困境。利用典型工业城市茂名1990—2015年的相关数据构建了衡量人口流动、农业人口比重和经济增长的数据指标,采用VAR模型验证了城市人口收缩与经济增长之间的交互影响。研究结果表明,茂名人口收缩并未对城市经济增长产生显著影响,原因在于其人口流出是"常住人口"少于"户籍人口"差额所形成的"隐性收缩",而非城市人口的绝对减少。外流的人口中以农业户籍为主体,故而减轻了本地区城镇化发展的压力。基于上述结论可以认为,在中国部分城市发生的人口隐性收缩现象与西方国家经历的城市收缩现象应当有所区别,人口隐性收缩并不必然带来城市衰退。

Enormous immigrant population formed the agglomerative effect about population as well as the dilemma of population loss under the backgrounds of fast urbanization. Using the time series data of the typical industrial city Maoming,Guangdong Province from 1990 to 2015 to make indexes assessing population migrating,rate of agricultural population and economic growth,this paper adopts Vector Autoregression Models（ VAR） to verify the interactive effects between population shrinking and economic growth in Maoming. Conclusion is made that the shrinking population has produced little effects on the economic growth for Maoming,as the shrinking population is just a hidden shrinkage which is the difference between the resident population and Hukou population instead of the absolute decline for urban population. The pressure of urbanization in this city is relieved on the basis of that majority of population dropping out are agricultural household residents. The mechanism of hidden shrinkage of population in Maoming is absolutely different from that of urban shrinking in western countries on the research results totally above. The phenomenon of hidden shrinkage of population happened in domestic cities differ enormously from that in western countries,which could not absolutely lead to urban decline.