河北省粮食产量变化贡献因素分解与测算——基于粮食内部结构调整的视角

Decomposition and Estimation of Contribution Factors to Grain Yield Change of Hebei Province——From the Perspective of Grain Internal Structure Adjustment

利用河北省1980~2015年粮食生产数据,采用RLI模型对1980~2015年河北省粮食生产变化的贡献因素进行了分解测算,并对比分析了粮食播种面积变动、各作物单产水平变化和粮食种植结构调整对河北省粮食生产变动的贡献。测算结果显示,粮食作物单产水平的提高是粮食增产的首要贡献因素,其中,小麦和玉米单产水平的提高是影响作物生产力效应的主体,贡献率为101.84%;作物种植结构调整中,玉米的贡献率最大;播种面积变化的产量效应为负,对粮食增产的贡献率为-21.69%。粮食产量变化的3个贡献因子,在研究期不同时段的作用差异显著。

Using the relevant statistical data of grain yield from 1980 to 2015 in Hebei Province, the contribution factors to grain yield change were decomposed and estimated based on refined laspeyres index（RLI） model,and the influence of grain area,grain yield per hectare and grain structure on the changes of grain yield were analyzed. The results showed that the increasing of grain crops yield per hectare was the primary contribution factor for grain yield increase. The increasing of yield per hectare of wheat and corn mainly influenced the crop-producing power,and the contribution rate was 101.84%. As far as crops planting structure adjustment, the contribution rate of corn was the highest. The effect of grain area change on grain yield was negative,and the contribution rate was-21.69%. The effects of three factors on grain yield change had significant difference at different times.