全面二孩政策对城乡居民基本养老保险制度实施的影响

The Impact of Two-child Policy on Rural-urban Residents Pension Insurance

城乡居民基本养老保险和全面二孩政策都具有应对人口老龄化的指向性,前者是针对老年人口经济收入的更为具体的措施,后者则试图通过调整人口年龄结构来缓解老龄化压力,是更为宏观的举措。城乡居民基本养老保险在实施中面临着参保者"逆选择"、养老金替代率水平低等问题,难以彻底解决城乡居民的养老问题。受生命周期的影响,全面二孩政策缓解老龄化目标的实现存在一定的过渡期,这也使该政策对城乡居民基本养老保险在短期和长期产生不同的影响。通过OLG模型分析全面二孩政策对城乡居民基本养老保险在近期及未来发展的影响,发现全面二孩政策有望在长期提高城乡居民基本养老保险补贴水平,缓解人口老龄化压力,但在短期内则会增加其支出压力,限制补贴水平的提高。

Both rural-urban residents pension insurance（ RURPI） and two-child policy are aimed at alleviating aging. While the RURPI is more specific to support old ages,two-child policy tries to resolve aging problem by adjusting population age structure. RURPI in implement faces problems such as ＂ adverse choice＂ and too low pension replacement rate,so it can not resolve completely the pension for rural and urban residents. With the feature of life cycle,the realization of two-child policy ＇s target needs a transitional period,which makes the policy have different effect on RURPI at short or long terms. With OLG model,we analyze the effect of two-child policy on RURPI in short run and long run. The results show that two-child policy can increase the benefit of RURPI in long run and release the pressure of population aging,but in short run,it worsens the fiscal pressure and restrains the increase of benefit.