外汇投机偏好对人民币国际化的冲击——基于日元衰退的实证分析

The Impact of Foreign Currency Speculation on Internationalization of RMB——Based on the Empirical Analysis of the Yen Decline

2015年人民币正式加入SDR,虽然标志着人民币国际化进程取得重大突破,但是并不意味着人民币已能充当国际货币职能。首先通过提出凯恩斯货币境外需求动机理论,以此分析日元国际化失败的内在原因;然后利用扣除本地需求法重新测算人民币最新境外存量走势,推断人民币国际化目前所处阶段;最后采用脉冲响应分析,研究推动人民币国际化的潜在因素。结论是:其一,日元国际化的失败在于其未能真正充当国际货币职能,而仅是成为国际外汇市场的套利工具;其二,人民币国际化水平已经降至金融危机后水平,表明"新常态"下人民币国际化战略正面临严峻阻碍;其三,人民币国际化此前主要的推动因素源于人民币币值的持续走强,而如今币值的下降同样带来人民币国际化水平的骤跌。从当前形势看,人民币国际化进程与曾经日元国际化存在相似之处,因此需积极调整推进战略,提高风险防范意识。

Entering SDR officially in 2015 markes a significant milestone of the RMB internationalization,but it does not mean that the renminbi has been able to act as an international currency. This paper firstly analyzes the inherent causes of the failure of yen internationalization by proposing the theory of monetary foreign demand motivations; then uses the method of the local demand deduction to calculate the trend of RMB outside stock and to infer the current stage of RMB internationalization; and finally uses impulse response analysis to study the potential factors to promote RMB internationalization.The conclusions are： First,the reason of the failure of yen internationalization is that it does not really act as an international monetary function,but only becomes the international foreign exchange market arbitrage tool; Second,the international level of RMB has dropped to the level after the financial crisis,indicating that the RMB internationalization strategy is facing severe obstacles under the New Normal; Third,the main driving factors of RMB internationalization stemed from the continued strength of the RMB before,and now the RMB depreciation results in its international level＇s plunging. From the current situation,the internationalization process of RMB and yen has a similarity,which reminds us to adjust promoting stragegy and take cautious attitude.