普惠金融视角下城乡收入差距对城镇化的门槛效应

The Threshold Effect of Urban-rural Income Gap on China's Urbanization Process from the Perspective of Regional Inclusive Finance

金融资源的可获得性、城乡收入差距的状况与城镇化进程存在必然的关联影响。基于我国31个省市2009~2014年的面板数据,采用模糊评价法构造区域普惠金融发展程度的门槛变量,使用面板门槛模型分析城乡收入差距对城镇化进程的动态影响。实证结果表明:在普惠金融发展门槛下,城乡收入差距对城镇化的影响呈现"U"型,城乡收入差距的拉大严重阻碍该地区的城镇化进程;在农村普惠金融发展门槛下,城乡收入差距对城镇化的影响呈现倒"U"型,但是结果并没有获得统计上的支持;在城镇普惠金融发展门槛下,城乡收入差距对城镇化的影响是非线性"U"曲线,且结果在统计上高度显著。同时,区域经济发展水平,第二、三产业占比以及人均固定资产投资的增加都会推动地区城镇化进程。面对较长时期金融资源配置中严重存在的城乡地域非均衡问题,经济发展"新常态"时期非常有必要通过恰当的政策干预矫正金融资源配置格局和实现金融普惠性发展,并最终为实现普惠金融促进城乡收入提升和助力新型城镇化协调可持续发展提供重要支撑。

There are some inevitable relationship and necessary impact among the availability of financial resources,the income gap between urban and rural areas and the process of urbanization.Based on the panel data of 31 provinces and cities in China from2009 to 2014,the AHP method is used to construct the threshold variable of the level of regional financial inclusion development.The panel threshold model is used to analyze the dynamic impact of urban and rural income inequality on China＇s urbanization process.The empirical results show that under the threshold of Pratt Whitney financial development,the impact of urban-rural income gap on urbanization is ＂ U＂ type.The widening gap between urban and rural areas has seriously hindered the urbanization process in the region.Under the threshold of rural inclusive finance,the impact of urbanization has shown the reverse ＂ U＂ type,but the result has not obtained the statistical support.Under the threshold of urban inclusive financial development,the effect of urban-rural income gap on urbanization is nonlinear ＂ U＂ curve,and the result is statistically highly significant.In addition,the level of regional economic development,secondary and tertiary industries and the increase in investment in fixed assets per capita will promote the process of regional urbanization.At present,China＇s financial resources deployment has serious urban and rural regional discrimination,and the future in the Pratt Whitney financial resources allocation path can be appropriate to the central and western regions and achieve regional coordination and sustainable development.