新丝绸之路的贸易增长效应及长期贸易潜力——基于静、动态面板数据的实证分析

The Trade Growth Effect and Long-term Trade Potential of the New Silk Road:Empirical Analysis Based on Static and Dynamic Panel Data

加强与中亚五国的贸易发展有利于我国对外贸易潜在市场的挖掘。同时,现代交通业和物流业的发展弱化了空间距离带来的贸易量流失,在长期双边贸易中,持续稳定的经贸关系、互联互通的基础设施建设、畅通便利的经济合作安排是影响长期贸易潜力的关键因素。因此,我国应加强与沿线国家的政策和文化沟通,延伸和发挥区域经济集聚和辐射功能,形成点状密集、线状延伸、面状辐射的生产、贸易一体化的带状经济区域。

The five Central Asian countries are the central intersections of the Silk Road. Therefore,strengthening the trade development with the five Central Asian countries is conducive to the excavation of the potential market for China＇s foreign trade. In the meantime,the development of modern transportation and logistics has weakened the loss of trade volume caused by the spatial distance. In the long-term bilateral trade,the sustained and stable economic and trade relations,the construction of infrastructural facilities with connectivity and the smooth and convenient economic cooperation arrangements are the key factors influencing the potential of long-term trade. China should continue to seek further cooperation with the economic union from countries along the Belt and Road,enhance the communication with countries along the Belt and Road at the level of policy and culture,and extend and bring into play the function of cluster and radiation of regional economy so as to form a belt economic zone integrating production and trade as a whole featuring dense points,linear extension and area radiation.