政府直接干预、金融抑制与银行不良贷款——基于省际动态GMM估计方法

Government Intervention,Financial Repression and NPLs of Commercial Banks Based on Provincial Dynamic GMM Estimation Method

利用2005—2015年我国各地区政府干预、金融抑制与银行业不良贷款率数据,运用动态GMM回归方法,对三者之间的关系进行了探讨,结果表明:金融抑制导致银行不良贷款率攀升,政府直接干预会促进银行不良贷款率的下降,而政府直接干预可以起到削弱金融抑制对银行不良贷款率负面影响的作用。此外,经济发展水平、非国有化程度及企业的资产负债率提高都能抑制我国银行业不良贷款率的上升。根据研究结论,提出如下政策建议:(1)在政府直接干预经济方面,政府要帮助创造良好宏观经济环境,加强服务意识,协调好直接经济干预和金融干预的平衡;(2)在降低金融抑制程度方面,应积极进行金融体制改革,充分发挥金融市场本身的资本配置作用;(3)从多方入手。

Using the data of government intervention,financial repression and the NPL ratio of the banking sector in China＇s various regions during the years from 2005 to 2015,this paper adopted the dynamic GMM regression method to discuss the relationship among the three. The result indicated that financial repression led to an increase in NPL ratio of commercial banks in China,and government intervention would promote a decline of NPL ratio in banking sector and weaken financial repression＇s negative effect on banks＇ bad loans. In addition,the level of economic development,the degree of non-nationalization,and the increase in asset-liability ratio could inhibit the rise of non-performing loan ratio in China＇s banking industry. According to the findings,policy suggestions are put forward as the followings： First,the government should help create a favorable macroeconomic environment,strengthen the awareness of service,and coordinate the balance between direct economic intervention and financial intervention. Second,in reducing the degree of financial repression,we should carry out the financial system reform actively,and let the financial market itself fully play the role of capital allocation. Third,starting from various aspects,we should promote the industrial upgrading and transformation to improve the level of economic development and accelerate the reform of state-owned enterprises and encourage enterprises to guard against risks.