对我国流动人口规模变动的分析和讨论

An Analysis of the Change of Floating Population in China and the Implication

在我国人口结构快速转变、户籍制度深入改革的背景下,对我国的流动人口规模近年来的变动进行解读并判断未来的发展趋势具有重要的现实价值和学术价值。文章从人口平衡公式出发,在把握影响我国流动人口规模的重要因素基础上对流动人口的规模变动进行因素分解,力图从宏观上构造流动人口规模变动的动态模型,结合近年来的户籍制度改革和流动人口子群体的构成变化讨论当前及未来我国流动人口规模的变动趋势。

Under the background of rapid population structure change and the deep reform of Hukou registration system in China, it is of great practical significance and academic value to interpret the changes of the floating population in recent years to predict the future development trend. Based on the population balance formula, this paper decomposes the driving factors of the change of floating population size and constructs a dynamic model of changing size of floating populations by considering the Hukou registration system reform and the floating population 's recent structural change.