“一带一路”倡议对中国经济发展水平的影响——基于断点回归分析

Impact of“One Belt One Road”Initiative on China's Economic Development Level:Based on Regression-Discontinuity Analysis

利用Eviews8.0软件的BREAKLS功能寻找断点年份,并基于2010—2016年中国对"一带一路"沿线65个国家的出口面板数据,利用断点回归方法实证分析了"一带一路"倡议对中国经济发展水平的影响。结果显示:自"一带一路"倡议的实施对中国经济发展速度的影响程度较大,对中国经济发展规模的影响程度相对较小。稳健性检验结果显示:自"一带一路"倡议提出以来,中国对"一带一路"沿线国家的出口贸易对中国经济发展水平的提高起到了更加积极的促进作用。

Based on the panel data of China's exports to 65 countries along the"One Belt One Road"from 2002 to 2016,this paper uses the BREAKLS feature of the Eviews 8.0 software to find the breakpoint years.The result shows that the year of 2013 is the breakpoint year.And then it analyzes the mean value of China's total exports to the countries along the " One Belt One Road",and uses the method of regression-discontinuity to analyze China's economic development.The result show that the average GDP,per capita GDP and GDP growth rate are estimated by 1.45%,1.95%and 10.11%respectively,and indicates that "the Belt and Road Initiative" has a positive effect on the level of China's economic development.The result of robustness test shows,since the "the Belt and Road Initiative" is proposed,China's export trade to the countries along the " One Belt One Road" has played a more positive role in enhancing China's economic development.