我国土地财政规模估算及影响因素研究

The Scale of Chinese Land Finance and Its Influencing Factors

分税制改革后,地方财政压力增大,土地财政问题日益凸显。基于我国土地财政的构成,按窄、中、宽三种口径估算土地财政规模,结果表明不同统计口径的土地财政收入都呈现出上升趋势,以土地出让收入为主的土地租金和贷款收入成为地方政府主要的财力来源;总体上看东、中、西部地方政府对土地财政的依赖度逐渐趋同;人口城市化水平和中央级税收比重与土地财政规模正相关,而外商直接投资与土地财政规模负相关;人口总抚养比与土地出让收入比重正相关,而人均GDP与土地直接税收入比重正相关。不同地区在不同发展阶段的土地引资效应和土地收入效应是不同的,地方政府对土地财政的依赖程度与其经济发展水平和国家宏观政策是密切相关的。应深化财税体制改革,转变政府职能,加强土地出让资金监管,以有效控制土地财政规模,弱化地方政府对土地财政的依赖。

After the reform of the system of tax distribution,the pressure on local finance becomes bigger and land finance problem is more and more serious.Based on the composite of Chinese land finance,the scale of land finance is estimated according to narrowing,middle and wide methods,the results show that the land finance revenue from different finance statistics methods demonstrates the rising trend,the land rent and loan by taking land transfer income as the main revenue become the finance source of local government,generally speaking,the dependence rate on land finance in middle and west governments gradually converges,population urbanization level and central government tax revenue rate are positively correlated,however,foreign direct investment and land finance scale are negatively correlated.Total fostering ratio of population and land finance revenue are positively correlated,further,per capita GDP and land direct tax revenue are positively correlated.The land capital-broughtin effect and revenue effect at different regions are different,the dependence extent of local governments on land finance is closely related to their economic development level and national macro-policy.China should deepen the reform of finance and tax system,change government duty,strengthen the supervision on land transfer funds,effectively control the scale of land finance and weaken the local governmental dependence on land finance.