政府投资对房地产和非房地产部门效应的非对称性分析

The Non-symmetry Analysis of Government Investment on Real Estate and Non-real Estate Sectors' Effects

本文通过构建一个动态随机一般均衡(DSGE)模型,引入垄断竞争、信贷约束等非完全竞争因素,考察了我国政府投资对房地产和非房地产部门效应的非对称性及其传导机制。参数校准后,模拟分析发现,政府投资和居民消费价格指数明显负相关,与房价表现为初期负相关、后期正相关,两者呈现非对称性;政府投资与房地产投资呈现明显的正相关,与非房地产投资初期负相关、后期正相关,这两者也呈现非对称性。同时分析表明,在我国政府投资对房地产和非房地产部门的非对称效应的传导机制中,政府投资的正外部性、负财富效应、居民理性收入预期和土地财政担当重要角色。

A dynamic stochastic general equilibrium(DSGE)model is constructed in this paper,by introducing imperfect competition factors such as monopolistic competition,credit constraints,etc.The asymmetry and transmission mechanism of the effect of Chinese government investment on real estate and non-real estate sector are investigated.After parameter calibration,the simulation analysis finds that,on the one hand,the government investment has a significant negative correlation with the consumer price index;and has a negative correlation with the performance of the housing price in the early and positive correlation later,the consumer price index and the price of the residents are asymmetrical;On the other hand,the government investment presents a clear positive correlation with real estate investment,and has a negative correlation with the performance of non-real estate investment initially and a positive correlation later,real estate and non-real estate investment are also asymmetrical.At the same time,the analysis shows that the government investment positive externalities,negative wealth effect,residents’rational expectations income,and the land finance play important roles in the asymmetric transmission mechanism of government investment on the real estate and non-real estate sector’s in our country.