全球生产链嵌入与我国制造业出口竞争力测算

The Integration of Global Production Chain and Manufacturing Export Competitiveness in China

我国制造业面临来自发达国家和其他发展中国家"双向挤压"的严峻挑战。基于产品内分工视角,本文比较分析了传统全值口径与增加值口径核算的各类制造业竞争力指数差异,并在此基础上定量分析影响我国制造业竞争力的主要矛盾。结果显示,增加值口径贸易竞争力指数能够综合考虑产业部门国内外生产关联,其变化更符合经验判断,且在不同类型竞争力指标估算结论上具有较强一致性。相比之下,全值口径统计的不同竞争力指标差异较大,采用不同指标进行分析容易产生统计误判。根据固定效应面板模型分析,增加值口径核算结果显示,不断扩大对外开放,促进制造业全球生产链嵌入是提高我国制造部门贸易竞争力、实现《中国制造2025》强国战略目标的重要保障。

China’s manufacturing industry is facing severe challenges,from two-way squeeze of developed countries and other developing countries.Using the division of labor perspective in the product,this paper compares the various types of manufacturing competitiveness index differences computed through gross value and value-added perspective,and analyzes quantitatively the main reasons affecting these two kind indexes.The results show that there is a big difference in the competitiveness of China’s manufacturing sector with gross value and value-added perspective.Compared to the gross value,changes of value-added trade competitiveness indexes which considers the production linkage between domestic and abroad are much more consistent.In contrast,it’s easy to produce statistical misjudgment by using the gross valued perspective.Furthermore,according to the analysis of the fixed effect panel model,the valueadded results show that,the expansion of the opening and to promote the integration of global production chain are not only an effective way to improve the competitiveness of China’s manufacturing sector,but also a guarantee to achieve the strategic goal of manufacturing power proposed in"Made in China 2025".