基于图书资源利用数据时间序列模型的图书采购质量控制研究

Research on the Quality Control of Book Acquisition based on Empirical Analysis of Book Resources Utilization Data with Seasonal Pattern

文章以宁夏师范学院图书馆2011—2016年图书资源利用数据的短期预测分析为手段,利用定量的时间序列Winter加性季节指数平滑模型,对图书资源利用数据时间序列进行量化分析,确定出最佳的模型加权参数,模型的检验效能较好,并利用该模型对2017年1—12月的流通量进行了预测。根据预测流通量的季节特性,有时间针对性地编制采购计划和严格执行采购方案,从采购时间和采购内容两个维度对如何提升图书采购质量的工作模式进行了探讨。

In this paper, the book resources utilization data during 2011-2016 of Ningxia Normal University library is quantitatively short time predictive analyzed by using of winter additive seasonal exponential smoothing model. The optimal weighted parameters are determined and the model performs well. Furthermore, the library circulation amounts from January to December in 2017 are predicted by using this model. Finally, according to the seasonal characteristic of predicted circulation amount, the book acquisition plan is compiled with targeted time point and procurement scheme is carried out strictly. From two different aspects （purchasing time and contents）, the paper discusses how to improve the quality of book acquisition.