对我国动力煤价格中长期走势的初步判断

Primary Judgment for the Long-term Trend of China's Thermal Coal's Price

我国动力煤价格波动幅度大,对煤炭及下游行业稳定可持续发展不利,本文通过分析我国煤炭供需、成本、进出口和国家调控等影响煤炭价格的因素,认为煤炭价格走势将逐步趋于平稳,中长期看秦皇岛5500大卡动力煤平仓价能够控制在500~570元/t。

Large fluctuation amplitude of China＇s thermal coal price is bad for the stable and sustainable de.velopment of coal and downstream industries. Through the analysis of factors that affect coal＇s price,such asChina＇s coal supply and demand,cost,import and export,and state regulation,which comes to a conclu.sion that coal price trend will gradually become stable,seen in the long term,settlement price of Qinhuang.dao 5500 kcal thermal coal of exit price can be controlled in 500～570 yuan/t.