城乡金融非均衡发展对居民收入差距影响研究——基于中国1991-2015年的数据分析

Empirical Analysis of Income Gap Affected by Unbalanced Development of Urban and Rural Finance——Based on the Data of 1991-2015 in China

基于中国1991-2015年数据,利用时间序列分析方法,考量城乡金融非均衡发展对居民收入差距的影响。结果表明:城乡金融规模、金融结构、金融效率差异以及城乡财政支持差异、非农产业结构水平与城乡居民收入差距存在长期稳定关系;城乡金融规模差异是直接引起城乡居民收入水平差异的格兰杰原因;城乡之间在金融规模、金融结构、金融效率方面存在差异,对城乡居民收入差距都有拉大的作用;短期内城乡金融结构差异作用明显,长期内金融效率差异作用较大,而金融规模差异、财政支持差异在长期和短期内都起作用,非农产业结构水平在长期内对城乡居民收入差距有很强的负作用。

The unbalanced development of urban and rural finance is one of the important factors that affect the income gap between urban and rural residents.Based on the data of China during 1991-2015 and using time series analysis method,this paper makes empirical research on the impact of unbalanced urban and rural financial development on income gap between urban and rural residents.The results show that:there is a long-term and stable relationship between differences in financial scale,financial structure,financial efficiency,financial support between urban and rural areas,non-agricultural industrial structure level and income gap between urban and rural areas;the difference between urban and rural financial scale is the Granger cause that directly causes the income level difference between urban and rural residents;there are differences in terms of financial scale,financial structure and financial efficiency between urban and rural areas,and all of them have widened the income gap between urban and rural residents.Differences of financial structure play a role in the short term,while efficiency differences take effect in the long run,financial scale differences and degree of support from the government work in both short and long term,non-agricultural industrial structure level has a strong negative effect on the gap.