气候变化对黑龙江省七星河径流驱动的影响

Effect of Climate Change on Runoff Driven of Qixing River in Heilongjiang Province

利用1961—2013年保安和宝清气象、水文监测资料,基于水量平衡方程,采用相关、趋势和突变检测等方法,分析七星河流域中游区段降水、气温、蒸发及其对径流驱动的影响。结果表明,近53年来保安与宝清降水量变化基本一致;七星河与挠力河中游段两径流量变化趋势一致。降水成为驱动径流变化的主要因子之一,水稻种植面积扩大和水利工程发展也是驱动径流变化的另一原因。蒸发从1988年开始发生了转折性变化;蒸发对径流驱动的影响主要表现在1961—1987年。宝清气温与保安径流呈反向变化趋势;突变前(1961—1987年)为低温时段,突变后(1988—2013年)为较高时段;气温变化虽不能对径流变化直接产生驱动影响,但却能起到加速或减少蒸发的驱动作用。

Using the meteorological and hydrological monitoring data of Bao'an and Baoqing from 1961 to 2013,based on the water balance equation,the correlation,trend and mutation detection were used to analyze the precipitation,temperature and evaporation and their effects on the runoff driven in the middle reach of Qixing River Basin. The results showed that there was basically the same change of precipitation between Bao'an and Baoqing in the past 53 years and the same trend of the two runoffs in the middle reach of Qixing River and Naoli River. Precipitation was one of the main factors driving the change of runoff. The expansion of rice acreage and the development of water conservancy project were another reason for driving the change of runoff. Evaporation had a turning point since 1988; the effect of evaporation on runoff was mainly manifested in 1961-1987. Temperature of Baoqing and runoff of Bao'an showed a reverse trend; before the mutation( 1961-1987)was the low temperature period and after the mutation( 1988-2013) was the higher period; although the temperature change could not directly affect the runoff,it could accelerate or reduce the evaporation.