近60年岷江流域气温变化趋势与突变性分析

Analysis on the Variation Trend and Mutability of Temperature in Minjiang River Basin in Recent 60 Years

利用岷江流域1955—2014年的逐月气温资料,采用线性趋势、距平分析、Mann-Kendall突变检验及Morlet小波变换对该流域上、中、下游的气温变化趋势及突变性与周期性进行分析。结果表明,近60年岷江流域年均气温、最高气温、最低气温均呈上升趋势,增速从大到小依次为上游、中游、下游;该流域各季节的年均气温由北向南递增,但冬季中游比下游略高;岷江流域年均气温从20世纪80年代中后期开始整体波动回升,进入21世纪后上升趋势显著,但上、中、下游的突变时间并不一致;岷江流域气温出现低温-高温循环变化的规律,上、中、下游分别以9、4、4年左右的周期振荡为主。

Using the monthly temperature data of the Minjiang River Basin from 1955 to 2014,the variation trend,mutability and periodicity of temperature of upper,middle and lower reaches of the Minjiang River Basin were analyzed by linear trend,anomaly analysis,Mann-Kendall mutation test and Morlet wavelet transform. The results showed that the average temperature,maximum temperature and minimum temperature of the Minjiang River Basin were increasing in the past 60 years,the growth rate was upper > middle > lower. The average annual temperature of the basin was increasing from north to south in each season,but temperature increase of the middle in winter was slightly higher than that of the lower. The annual average temperature of the Minjiang River Basin had been fluctuating since the middle and late 1980 s,and the rising trend had been remarkable in the 21 st century,but the mutation time in the upper,middle and lower reaches was not consistent. The temperature of Minjiang River Basin showed the law of low temperature and high temperature cycle,and the periodic oscillations of the upper,middle and lower reaches were 9 years,4 years and 4 years respectively.