对地方政府隐性债务风险的思考

On thinking of Implicit Debt Fiscal Risks of Local Government

从国际比较看,中国政府部门的负债率低于主要市场经济国家的水平。鉴于中国政府拥有足够的主权资产来覆盖其主权负债,因此在一段时间内发生主权债务危机的可能性极低。包括地方政府担保债务和救助债务、新增的地方融资平台债务和各种替代性融资方案在内的隐性债务风险,值得高度警惕。未来应以硬化地方政府的预算约束为重点,有效克服地方政府的借贷冲动。

The debt-to-GDP ratio of China’s government sector is smaller than the levels of major market economies. Given that the Chinese government possesses sufficient sovereign assets to cover its sovereign debts, the possibility for the occurrence of sovereign debt crisis in the foreseeable future is minimal. At the same time, China should specially guard against implicit fiscal debt risks including local government guaranteed debt and relief liabilities, local government financing vehicle （LGFV） liabilities incurred since 2015 and alternative financing schemes. In the future, China should focus on further enhancing the budgetary constraint of local governments and effectively resisting local government’s impulse to borrow.