中国能源低碳转型(2015—2050):可再生能源发展与可行路径

Low-carbon transformation of China's energy in 2015—2050:renewable energy development and feasible path

在新一轮产业革命的背景下,第三次能源革命正悄然发生,中国也已走入能源转型的"十字路口"。现有关于能源转型路径的研究,大多关注于能源转型本身,忽视了能源转型需要与经济发展阶段相契合的重要特征,即中国能源转型所面临的问题是何种能源转型方案在近期所带来的成本能够被经济系统消纳包容,而在长期又能够推动经济的可持续增长?鉴于此,本文通过跨国比较以及CGE模型研究中国的能源转型与经济发展。跨国比较分析发现,人均收入水平及一定的产业结构基础是能源转型的重要条件,从产业结构及人均GDP的对比看,中国在近5年内如注重节能减排政策实施以提升能源利用效率,人均二氧化碳将在2035年甚至更早进入排放的"下降期",选择何种能源转型道路是当前中国所必须面临的重要问题。本文根据模型演化结果及跨国经验分析,将中国能源转型的可行路径分为三个阶段:2015—2025年,中国经济进入"新常态",正经历经济增长换挡期、结构调整阵痛期和前期刺激政策消化期"三期叠加"的关键阶段,也是跨越"中等收入陷阱"的重要时期,能源转型应采取"温和"手段,高比例的可再生能源发展目标将对经济产生较大负向冲击,不具备可行性;2025—2035年,是能源转型方向确定期,可以制定较高比例的可再生能源发展目标,亦可逐步挖掘化石能源自身的"清洁潜力",转型方向应与新一轮产业革命紧密联系;2035—2050年,为能源转型的成熟期,可再生能源发展将步入崭新阶段,中国能源系统或将呈现两种可能,一是到2050年实现一次能源消费结构中可再生能源占比达到60%以上;二是局部地区实现100%的可再生能源供应,而整个能源供应体系呈现出化石能源与非化石能源平分秋色的局面。

In the context of the new round of industrial revolution, the third round energy revolution is quietly occurring and China isnow on the ‘ crossroads ’ of energy transformation. Most of existing studies on thepath of energy transformation focus on energytransformation itself, ignoring the important feature of linking energy transition to the stage of economic developof energy transformation program will have the costs in the near future can be absorlDed by the economic system, and in the long termcan promote the sustainable economic growth？ In view of this, this paper uses CGE model and transnational comparisons to study China ’ s energy transformation and economic development. Based on there suits, thefeasible path of China ’ s energy transformation is divided into three stages. During 2015 - 2025, China ’ s economy enters the ‘ newnormal’,is experiencing period, structural adjustment pain period and early stimulating policy digestion period, which is but also an important period across the 1 middle income trap ’. In this period, the government should take ‘ moderate ’ transformation because high proportion of renewable energy development will have a great negative impact on the economy, which is not feasible. During 2025 - 2035, it is the period which will determine the direction of energy transformation. We can either set up a higher proportion targets of renewable energy development, or the fossil energy may still dominant tlie energy system due to its 1 clean itself potential The direction of transformation should be closely linked with the newround of industrial revolution. During 2035 -2050, it is the mature period of energy transformation and renewable energy development will enter a new may have two possibilities. One is that by 2050, renewable energy accounted for more than 60T in the primary energy consumption structure. The otlier is that in some areas renewable energ can provide 100T of energy consumption and in the entire en e rg supply system, fossil energy and non-fossil energy will equally share the market.