电网拓扑结构引致二氧化碳减排的空间溢出机制

The spatial spillover mechanism of carbon dioxide emission reduction caused by electric power grid topology construction

本文以碳排放指标的省际空间相关性为基础,揭示省际高压电网互联结构对碳排放指标空间相关性的影响机理。依据1998—2014年中国30省份高压电网省间联络线的投运时序构建空间权重矩阵,以反映省间能源设施互联的紧密程度。使用动态空间杜宾面板模型克服静态空间面板模型的忽略变量偏误;以内生变量的滞后一期为代理变量克服内生性偏误。同时,采用反事实计量的方法分析《大气污染防治计划》配套的12条在建高压线路投运后对碳排放指标的影响。研究结果发现:(1)高压电网互联使得各连接省份间的碳排放指标呈现出空间同质性的特点,拉高低碳排放省份碳排放指标的同时,有助于高碳排放省份碳排放指标的降低。(2)高压电网互联后,能源强度降低对减少碳排放指标起着关键作用;12条在建高压线路投运后,省间碳排放指标的空间相关性进一步增强,能源强度改善对碳排放指标降低的重要性进一步突显;同时,提升电力占比与改善产业结构也对减少碳排放指标起着重要作用。这不仅实现了省际碳排放指标空间相关性机理分析的方法创新,还为能源基础设施互联政策对节能减排的影响提供了计量测算方法。

The paper based on the spatial correlation of carbon dioxide emission index,illustrate the changing mechanism of spatial correlation caused by inter-provincial high voltage electric power lines. A conformation method of spatial weights matrix according to the operation sequence of inter-provincial high voltage power lines of China in the period of 1998—2014 is presented to reflect the degree of interconnection of inter-provincial energy facilities. The dynamic spatial Dubin panel model is adopted to overcome the ignored bias error induced by the ignored explanatory variable in the static one,and the endogenous variable is replaced by their lag one to control the endogeneity bias error. At the same time the counterfactual econometric method is adopted to analyze the effect caused by the 12 high voltage electric power lines coming from the Chinese state plan named after "Air pollution prevention and control plan". The finding is that: Firstly,the interconnection of inter-provincial high voltage electric power grid makes carbon dioxide emission index to show spatial homogeneity,could increase the index level of provinces with low emission index and help to reduce the index level of provinces with hight emission index; Secondly,the action that reduce provincial energy intensity is the key factor to reduce the index level,resulted from the spatial spillover effect caused by inter-provincial topology construction of power grid,especially after the operation of 12 high voltage power lines,and the actions that increase the proportion of electric power consumption and adjust industrial structure are also important factors. The changing mechanism of spatial correlation of inter-provincial carbon dioxide emission index can be evaluated by this method,and provides a econometric method of political measures to energy-saving and emission-reduction effected by the interconnection of inter-provincial energy facilities.