中国碳排放峰值及其倒逼机制研究的发展动态

Development trend of the study on China's carbon emission peak and its forcing mechanisms

为了进一步应对气候变化,中国提出到2030年左右实现二氧化碳排放达到峰值。碳排放峰值目标的设定,必然会对经济转型产生一种倒逼机制。倒逼机制是中国在改革开放实践中成功实施的一种逆向运作的经济治理机制。探索碳排放峰值目标的倒逼机制的基本理论问题,研究如何在实践中完善和运用这种新型倒逼机制,对中国经济的低碳转型和可持续发展具有重要的理论参考价值。本文按照从"碳排放历史研究"到"碳排放趋势预测",从"峰值实现路径研究"到"峰值约束研究"的逻辑顺序,综述了近年来国内外有关中国碳排放及其峰值的研究现状和发展动态,并回顾了有关倒逼机制的基础理论研究和特定案例研究。结果表明:首先,现有研究都以顺向思维方式,预测碳排放峰值和研究实现峰值的路径,但没有文献以逆向思维方式,揭示峰值目标的倒逼机制;其次,现有研究虽然也提出了碳排放峰值的倒逼机制,但该倒逼机制目前在理论上仍处于一个黑箱之中,还没有文献曾试图打开这个黑箱,以揭示该机制的基本特征和运行机制;最后,现有研究也模拟了碳排放峰值目标约束对经济产生的影响,但没有系统性地研究在碳排放峰值目标倒逼机制下的经济转型路径,也没有深入探索在转型过程中采取的一系列政策措施的减排绩效和经济影响。基于该领域的现有成果和发展动态,本文提出了可进一步拓展的研究方向:要以逆向思维方式,从可持续发展的长期战略视角,在理论上解析和构建碳排放峰值目标的倒逼机制,系统性地研究在这种倒逼机制下的经济转型路径,并通过构建大型政策评估模型,量化评估在转型过程中采取的一系列政策措施的减排绩效和经济影响。

In order to further cope with climate change, China proposed to peak carbon dioxide emissions by about 2030. Carbon emissions peak target （ CEPT） must result in a forcing mechanisms on China ’ s economic transition. Forcing mechanism is one of conversely operating economic mechanisms which have been successfully implemented in China ’ s economhas important theoretical value for China ’ s low-carbon transition and sustainable development in order to explore the basic theory in the forcing mechanisms of CEPT and study how to complete and use the new forcing mechanisms. According to the logic from ＇ research on carbon emission history ’ to ＇ forecast of carbon emission ’,and from ＇ research on paths of realizing peak ’ to＇ research on peakconstraint ’,thii paper reviews the current status and development trend of studies on China ’ s carbon emission and its peak value. Furthermore, the paper also reviews the basic theories and specific cases of the forcing mechanisms. The conclusions show that, firstly, existing studies have predicted the peak value of carbon emissions and the ways to achieve peak values in a straight forward way of thinking, but no literature has revealed the forcing mechanisms of the CEPT in an adverse way of thinking. Secondly, although the existing research puts forward the forcing mechanisms of CEPT, it is still a black-box theory. No literature have tried to open the blackbox and to reveal thebasic characteristics and operating mechanism. Thirdly, theexisting literature simulates theeffeconstraint on China’ seconomy, but they do not systematically study the pathsof economic transition in the forcing mechanisms of CEPT, and do not explore the emission reduction performance and economic effects of some policies and measures taken in the process of economic transition. Based on the existing achievements and development trends in this field, the can be further expanded are put forward. Firstly, from the perspective of long-term strategy of sustainable development, we should analyze and construct tlie forcing mechanisms of CEP in a reverse thinking way. Secondly, economic transition paths under theforcing mechanisms should be systematically studied. Thirdly, by constructing a large-scale policy evaluation model, the emission reductionperformance and economic impact of a series of policy measures adopted during the transition process should be quantitatively evaluated.