高等教育与女性婚配:基于年龄、时期和队列的视角

Higher Education and Women's Marriage——Based on APC Analysis

本文基于2010年第三期中国妇女社会地位调查数据,利用APC交叉分类随机效应模型,以已婚女性为研究对象,分解出高等学历对女性教育婚配的年龄、时期和队列作用,以把握三方面时间维度的变化趋势。实证结果显示高等学历的年龄与时期作用显著,队列效应不明显。初婚年龄对高等学历女性的教育婚配年限差始终呈正向影响,34岁左右是教育婚配差由负变正的转折点;初婚年龄对非高等学历女性的影响则表现为U型分布。高等学历女性的夫妻教育年限差随着初婚年龄的上升而变大,且增幅大于非高等学历女性,可见推迟结婚的高等学历女性未必嫁得不好。此外,两类女性在20世纪80年代之后都展现出同质婚发展趋势,高等学历男性资源并没有被非高等学历女性占有,高等学历女性的教育婚配质量保持在较高水平且有上升的倾向。但是,两类女性的教育婚配经历的时期作用阶段明显不同:高等学历女性教育婚配的时期效应呈U型变化趋势,经历了"正—负—负—正"四个阶段;而非高等学历女性的时期效应单调下降,在1980年之后作用效果由正向变为负向。国内社会需要给高等学历女性一个相对宽松的环境,社会大众应该用长远的眼光看待婚恋问题,而高等学历女性自身也需要树立正确的婚恋观,全面综合地衡量结婚对象,适时进行婚配。

Based on data of the third phase investigation of women＇s social status in 2010, this study explored dynamic relation between higher education and women＇ s educational mating through Hierarchical APC-Cross-Classified Random Effects Models. The empirical results show that age and period effect are significant but cohort effect is not. For women with higher education age of first marriage influences age gap between husband and wife positively and 34 is the tuning point where couple＇ s difference in education changes from negative to positive. But for women without higher education, age gap between husband and wife changes as a U-shape curve with age of first marriage increasing. The older women with higher education are, the larger the educational gap between the couple is. In addition the increasing range is greater than non-higher education women. We can see that higher education women who marry late can still marry well. These two types of women are all changing to educational homogamy since 1980s and the quality of higher education women＇s marriage has been improving. But the period effect between these two types dif- fers. Women with higher education experienced a U-shape curve influence from period effect, which can be specified as four phases ＂positive-negative-negative-positive＂. Period effect on women without higher edu- cation changes from positive to negative after 1980. We recommend that the domestic community create a relatively relaxed marriage environment for higher education women. People should use a long-term per- spective on the issue of marriage, and higher education women themselves also need to establish a correct concept of marriage, choose mate comprehensively and marry timely.