东北地区长期低生育水平形成原因探析

An Analysis of the Reasons for Long-term Low Fertility Rate in Northeast China

20世纪70年代中期以来,东北地区人口生育率不断下降。目前东北地区的总和生育率基本与上海、北京持平,成为全国范围内人口生育率最低的地区。以往人们主要从思想观念方面解释东北地区超低人口生育率的形成原因。本文主要从城镇化对人口生育率的一般影响与特殊影响、农村落实计划生育政策的实效、低人口生育率的跨期影响和人口结构变化、受教育程度与人口生育率的关系等方面分析东北地区超低人口生育率的形成原因,结论认为尽管不能完全否定生育观、生育意愿对实际人口生育率的影响,但经济社会发展状况和计划生育政策的落实情况是影响生育水平的最主要因素,生育观和生育意愿在很大程度上是经济社会发展的反映,并随着经济社会的发展而变化。

Since the mid-1970s, the fertility rate of Northeast China has been declining. At present,the TFR in Northeast China has basically remained the same as those in Shanghai and Beijing, making it the lowest fertility rate in the entire country. In the past, scholars mainly explained the reasons for the extremely low fertility rate of population in Northeast China from the aspects of ideology. This paper analyzes the causes of the low fertility rate in Northeast China, mainly from the following aspects： the general and special effect of urbanization on the fertility rate; the effectiveness of the implementation of the family planning policy in rural areas; the intertemporal influence of the low tertility rate and the demographic structure. The conclusion is： although it can not completely negate the impact of value and desire fertility on the actual fertility rate, the status of economic and social development and the implementation of family planning policy are the most important factors that affect the level of fertility. The value and desire fertilily are reflection of and changing with economic and social development.